Decision::Markov - Markov models for decision analysis
Copyright (c) 1998-2003 Alan Schwartz . All rights reserved.
This program is free software; you can redistribute it and/or modify it
under the same terms as Perl itself.
DESCRIPTION
This module provides functions used to built and evaluate Markov models
for use in decision analysis. A Markov model consists of a set of
states, each with an associated utility, and links between states
representing the probability of moving from one node to the next. Nodes
typically include links to themselves. Utilities and probabilities may
be fixed or may be functions of the time in cycles since the model began
running.
PREREQUISITES
Decision::Markov expects to find some core perl modules, notably
FileHandle and Carp.
INSTALLATION
perl Makefile.PL
make
make test
make install
REVISION HISTORY
0.03 March 2003 - Fixed error in discount factor computations.
0.02 Sept 2002 - Test script improvements
0.01 March 1988 - Initial concept.
FUTURE PLANS
I'm planning to wire this up as the back end to CGI scripts for
teaching Markov models using web-based simulations. Future revisions
may include some other ways to display the model, and perhaps a
Monte Carlo routine that will run the model X times and produce
useful statistics (mean, variance, 95% CI, etc.)
There may also be other Decision:: models in the future, such
as Decision::Tree, Decision::Influence (influence diagrams),
Decision::Utility (utility assessment) and Decision::Bayes
(Bayesian updating of priors based on diagnostic tests).
But I may not get to them soon. Feel free to get there before me!